Georgia poll shows close races for president and Senate seats
Is Georgia a battleground state? In July, Biden led among the over 65 crowd. But now, among voters over the age of 65, Trump has overtaken Biden, and now leads the Democrat by 61 percent to 36 percent.
Biden has made gains with younger age groups, however, and now leads voters between 50 and 64 years old 54 percent to 43 percent after trailing the president by 2 points in July. Among voters under 50, Biden has pulled away from a 46 percent tie with Trump in January to build a 5-point lead over Trump.
The Monmouth survey also employed two likely voter models – one with a higher projected turnout than in 2016 and one with a lower projected turnout than 2016. Trump’s lead grew by a point in the higher turnout model, and it increased to 5 points in the lower turnout model.
Georgia is one of a handful of former GOP strongholds that has emerged as a potential battleground in November along with states like Arizona, despite Trump winning the state by 5 points in 2016.
Democrats have insisted that Georgia is in play once again, despite not having given its 16 Electoral College votes to a Democrat in nearly 30 years, pointing to the extremely close gubernatorial race in 2018 and shifting demographic trends.
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In a special election for Georgia’s second Senate seat, the poll shows a three-way virtual tie in the so-called jungle primary between GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to the seat earlier this year by Gov. Brian Kemp, GOP Rep. Doug Collins and Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock.
Loeffler leads the pack with 23 percent support, followed by Collins with 22 percent support and Warnock with 21 percent. Matt Lieberman, also a Democrat, registered 11 percent support in the poll. The survey represents a major upswing for Warnock, who is backed by Senate Democrats’ campaign arm – Wednesday’s poll shows a 12-point climb for the Atlanta-based pastor since July.
The survey underscores the certainty that the special election, which is set to take place on Nov. 3 along with the other races, will head to a runoff in January between the top two candidates. It also raises the possibility that January’s run-off could be a two-party race rather than a showdown of conservatives between Loeffler and Collins.
The Monmouth University poll surveyed 402 registered voters in Georgia by phone from Sept. 17-21. Results from the survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.