Possible split-ticket in Georgia governor, Senate races

A new poll from WSB′s partners at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution gives insight into what Georgia voters are thinking about the governor and U.S. Senate races.

The poll shows a split-ticket dynamic growing among potential voters.

In the governor’s race, the poll showed Gov. Brian Kemp leading with 48% over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams’s 43%. Kemp and Abrams polled close with independent voters with Kemp having slight 33%-30% edge. About 7% of voters in the poll were undecided.

“His lead has declined. Where it’s most critically important, he was, in the last sample we saw, up 17% among independents and non-aligned partisan voters. That number shrunk, he still leads there. But that’s that critical gap. That’s those numbers of people who decide the election,” WSB political analyst Bill Crane said.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Raphael Warnock leads with 46% over Republican challenger Herschel Walker’s 43%. The poll shows Warnock with a stronger lead among independent voters, 38% to 27% over Walker.

About 3% of voters indicated in the poll they would support Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. About 8% say they’re still undecided.

“The Libertarian actually pulling more than three percentage points and actual votes, makes it very possible for us to have a US Senate runoff. You go into the race 35, 40% on either side, and then that’s 17 to 20% in the middle of deciding. Libertarians don’t come from Democrats. They come out on the Republican side. So that makes it more likely if you have 3, 4 or 5% libertarian winning in a tight race that you’re going to have a US Senate runoff,” Crane said.

WSB is working to get reaction from each of the candidates about the new poll released Wednesday.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution conducted the poll with the University of Georgia’s School of Policy and International Affairs. The poll asked 902 likely voters from July 14-22 a series of questions regarding both races. The poll has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

The poll asked voters their views about abortion, former President Donald Trump and the Jan. 6 committee hearings, economy and President Biden’s approval ratings. The poll also asked whether denial about the 2020 election results would influence their votes.